How the Israel-Iran War is Reshaping Middle East Alliances
Introduction: A New Middle Eastern Order
The Israel-Iran war of June 2025 has fundamentally altered
the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, accelerating shifts in
alliances, security doctrines, and regional power structures. What began as a
direct military confrontation has evolved into a strategic realignment, forcing
nations to reassess partnerships, security dependencies, and long-term survival
strategies .
This article examines how the war has:
- Fractured Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" while exposing its military and diplomatic vulnerabilities.
- Strengthened Israel’s regional hegemony, backed by unprecedented U.S. support.
- Pushed Gulf states toward a U.S.-led security architecture, despite lingering fears of Iranian retaliation.
- Marginalized Russia and China, revealing the limits of their influence in Middle Eastern conflicts.
- Redefined digital and energy security, with infrastructure now a core pillar of national defense.
- By analyzing these transformations, we can map the emerging Middle East—one where traditional alliances are being rewritten, and new power centers are forming.
1. The Collapse of Iran’s Regional Network
Weakened Proxies: Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi Militias
Before the war, Iran’s "Axis of Resistance"—comprising Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite militias—was a formidable deterrent against Israel and the U.S. However, the June 2025 strikes decimated key nodes of this network:
Hezbollah’s leadership was targeted in precision strikes, degrading its missile stockpiles .
Houthi missile capabilities were degraded after Israeli operations in Yemen .
Iraqi militias remained passive, failing to retaliate against U.S. bases as expected .
Why this matters: Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy, which relied on proxies to project power, has been severely undermined, forcing Tehran to recalibrate its regional influence .
Diplomatic Isolation: Russia & China’s Tepid Support
Despite Iran’s expectations, neither Russia nor China intervened during the conflict:
Moscow, bogged down in Ukraine, offered only verbal condemnations .
Beijing, wary of disrupting its Gulf energy imports, refused to back Iran militarily .
The fallout: Iran’s dependence on the "CRINK"
alliance (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) proved illusory, exposing its
strategic loneliness in a crisis .
2. Israel’s Rise as the Dominant Military Power
- Unprecedented U.S. Backing & Air Superiority
- Israel’s Operation Rising Lion (June 13, 2025) demonstrated unmatched military dominance, with key successes:
- Destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow) via U.S. B-2 bomber strikes .
- Decapitation of IRGC leadership, including top nuclear scientists .
- Total air supremacy, neutralizing Iran’s air defenses within 24 hours.
- Strategic shift: Israel no longer relies solely on covert ops (e.g., assassinations, cyberattacks) but now conducts open, large-scale strikes with U.S. approval .
The "Begin Doctrine" in Full Effect
Israel’s long-standing policy—preemptive strikes against existential threats—has been validated:
- 1981 (Iraq’s Osirak reactor)
- 2007 (Syria’s Deir ez-Zor site)
- 2025 (Iran’s nuclear program)
3. The Gulf Dilemma: Balancing Between Iran and Israel
Saudi Arabia & UAE: From Coexistence to Containment
Before the war, Gulf states pursued diplomatic détente with Iran:
- Saudi-Iran normalization (2023)
- UAE trade resumption
But the June 2025 strikes forced a recalibration:
Fear of a nuclear Iran now outweighs economic pragmatism .
- Saudi Arabia is quietly aligning with Israel, despite public neutrality.
- The new equation: Gulf states are doubling down on U.S. security guarantees while hedging with sovereign defense investments (e.g., missile shields, AI-driven warfare) .
Qatar’s Mediation: A Fragile Balancing Act
Qatar emerged as a key mediator, brokering the June 24 ceasefire:
- Hosted U.S.-Iran backchannel talks in Doha .
- Balanced relations with Hamas and Washington, maintaining leverage.
4. The Marginalization of Russia & China
Russia’s Failed Middle East Strategy
Putin’s 2015 Syria intervention was meant to cement Moscow as a power broker, but:
- Assad’s fall (2024) destroyed Russia’s foothold .
- Result: Russia is now a non-factor in Middle Eastern security .
China’s Energy Pragmatism
- Beijing prioritized oil imports over backing Iran:
- Did not disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipments .
- Silence on U.S. strikes to avoid Gulf backlash .
Takeaway: China’s non-interventionism confirms its focus on
economic, not military, influence .
5. Digital & Energy Security: The New Frontlines
The "Terrestrial Digital Bridge"
The war accelerated a regional infrastructure shift:
- Israel, Jordan, and Gulf states are building land-based fiber-optic routes, bypassing vulnerable Red Sea cables .
- Data centers in the Negev Desert now serve as hardened strategic assets .
- Why it matters: Connectivity = sovereignty in the 21st century.
- Energy Realignments: Israel as a Gas Hub
- Gaza’s offshore gas fields (1.1 trillion cubic feet) are being integrated into Israeli exports .
- Azerbaijan-Israel energy ties deepen, marginalizing Armenia.
- Geopolitical cost: Palestinian & Armenian claims are being overridden for energy security .
Conclusion: A More Fragmented, More Militarized Middle East
The Israel-Iran war has not just changed borders—it has rewritten alliance structures. Key takeaways:
- Iran is weaker but more unpredictable—will it pursue nukes or retreat into isolation?
- Israel is now the region’s military hegemon, but overreach risks backlash.
The Gulf must choose: U.S. protection or risky autonomy.
- Russia & China are bystanders, ceding influence to Washington.
- Infrastructure is the new battlefield—control data and energy, control the future.
The next crisis will test whether these shifts lead to
durable stability or new explosions of conflict. For now, the Middle East’s old
rules no longer apply.
